How Trump's Presidency Could Impact Real Estate
As a real estate agent here in Chicago, I know that shifts in the housing market can profoundly impact buyers, sellers, and renters—especially with the new dynamics of a presidential term. With Donald Trump’s return to office, many of us are closely watching how his policies might influence real estate, particularly given the current shortage of affordable housing. Let's talk about Trump's concepts. Expanding Supply with Federal Land Most of what we know about Trump’s housing priorities comes from a speech he gave to the Economic Club of New York in early September, where he outlined plans to address the housing shortage. Trump proposed using federal land to increase housing supply and ease affordability issues, stating, “We will open up portions of federal land for large-scale housing construction…These zones will be ultra-low tax and ultra-low regulations—one of the great small business job creation programs.” By boosting the supply of homes, this approach could help stabilize prices, potentially providing relief for first-time buyers. Trump’s focus on cutting regulations could also make construction projects simpler and more cost-effective. However, since changes like these take time, it’s essential to stay informed about how these policies might unfold and impact us locally. Reducing the Corporate Tax Rate Another priority Trump outlined is lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for companies producing goods in the U.S., with the idea that this could stimulate economic growth and support housing. According to Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief and senior economic analyst for Bankrate, “A lower corporate tax rate could stimulate housing activity, boost investment, and potentially lead to increased housing market activity.” Hamrick also noted, “Among the potential ripple effects could be a rise in construction, more supply, and lower home prices,” which could benefit buyers facing high prices. Additionally, Trump mentioned wanting to address supply chain challenges and ease regulations on homebuilders, though details on these plans are still pending. Mass Deportation Trump’s proposed “mass deportation” plan could significantly impact the housing market by reducing the labor force available for construction. Trump promised to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history,” which could eliminate 1 to 2 million undocumented workers in construction, making up 10% to 19% of the workforce. This includes many key trades such as plasterers and roofers, with over a third of these workers being undocumented, according to the American Immigration Council. The National Immigration Forum also warns that the construction industry is already facing a labor shortage, needing over half a million new workers in 2024 to meet demand. Ralph McLaughlin, senior economist at Realtor.com, cautioned that reducing immigration could “severely hurt the labor supply needed for new homebuilding,” which could slow construction and worsen the affordable housing crisis in the short term. While some argue that removing undocumented workers might lower housing competition and costs, studies indicate that the increase in immigration is not directly tied to the rise in home prices and rents. According to data from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, home prices began climbing in 2020 and 2021, before the spike in immigration, and rents also saw a sharp increase in 2021. In fact, after immigration surged in 2022, the growth rate of home prices slowed significantly, and by 2023, rent growth stalled entirely. This suggests that the surge in immigration does not correlate with the sharp rise in housing costs, as some might assume. Project 2025 Trump’s housing policies for a second term are largely influenced by Project 2025, a proposal released in 2023 by The Heritage Foundation, a conservative group. One of the main parts, written by former HUD Secretary Ben Carson, talks about dismantling the Fair Housing Act in several ways. One example it suggests is removing the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) rule. The AFFH rule requires cities and local governments that receive federal funding for housing programs to actively work on identifying and removing barriers to fair housing. This includes addressing issues like discrimination or bias that might prevent certain groups of people from having equal access to housing. In addition to reversing those changes, Carson advocates ending policies that address racial bias in home appraisals and eliminating the use of “disparate impact,” which looks at unintentional discrimination in housing. Project 2025 also proposes ending programs like the Housing Trust Fund and Housing First, which are designed to help provide housing for low-income and homeless individuals. The plan also questions the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), even though the Supreme Court ruled in 2024 that it is in fact legal. Project 2025 suggests abolishing rules that help protect small businesses. Lastly, the proposal suggests that HUD’s top positions should be political, meaning leaders could be replaced based on the party in power. This goes along with a 2020 order by Trump to reduce protections for federal workers, which President Biden reversed in 2021. Interest Rates In his speech at the Economic Club of New York, Trump highlighted reducing mortgage rates as a key priority, saying, “We’re going to get them back down to, we think, 3%, maybe even lower than that, saving the average homebuyer thousands of dollars per year.” However, mortgage rates are set by the Federal Reserve, not the president. Trump has expressed frustration with this, stating, “I feel the president should have at least a say in there.” Since September of 2024, mortgage rates have risen, even after the Fed cut its benchmark rate. On the day after the election, November 6th, yields on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.44%, signaling higher mortgage rates in the near future. Investors might be taking Trump’s statements seriously, anticipating that his victory would lead to higher tariffs, immigrant deportations, and tax cuts funded by the deficit, all within a full-employment economy. These factors could contribute to increased inflation and more government borrowing, according to Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi. As of November 5th, the specifics of Trump’s housing policy are still being clarified. Looking Ahead: Navigating the Changes as Your Real Estate Advisor With many policies still taking shape, staying updated on these developments will be essential for us as real estate professionals. If Trump’s actions affect mortgage rates, housing inventory, or regulations, it’s our role to help clients understand how these shifts might impact their buying or selling decisions. I’ll be closely watching these potential impacts so I can provide you with the best insights to help you navigate the market.
How the Chicago Residential Market Has Changed in 2024
The Chicago residential real estate market in 2024 has seen dynamic shifts compared to last year, largely influenced by economic factors, fluctuating mortgage rates, and political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election. Here’s a deep dive into how the market has changed this year in terms of home prices, sales volume, inventory, and overall market stability. 1. Price Growth Chicago’s residential market experienced significant price growth in 2024, with median home prices rising by approximately 7.1% compared to 2023. The city's core neighborhoods, such as Lincoln Park, Logan Square, and West Loop, have continued to see appreciation as demand for homes in these prime locations remains high. The increase in home prices can be attributed to ongoing inventory shortages, as well as inflationary pressures that have pushed up the costs of materials and construction. This makes housing more expensive, both in terms of resale and new construction homes. However, some analysts argue that if interest rates increase, this price growth could slow down as affordability becomes a greater issue for buyers. 2. Sales Volume Decline Despite rising prices, overall sales volume has dropped in 2024. Chicago’s home sales have seen a 7% decline year-over-year, a reflection of higher borrowing costs due to mortgage rate hikes. Many buyers have been sidelined as mortgage rates hover between 6.5% and 7%, making monthly payments unaffordable for some, especially first-time buyers. In comparison to last year’s more robust sales activity, this year’s slowdown highlights how sensitive the housing market is to broader economic conditions. Experts predict that unless mortgage rates continue to decline, this decrease in sales activity may persist into next year. 3. Inventory Shortages A key challenge facing Chicago's market in 2024 has been the persistent shortage of available homes for sale. Inventory levels have dropped by almost 10%, compared to the same period in 2023, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. This scarcity is particularly pronounced in certain highly desirable neighborhoods near the North side of the city like Lakeview and Lincoln Park, where demand far exceeds the number of listings. The inventory constraints have kept the market competitive, with homes in popular areas often receiving multiple offers and selling quickly. 4. Market Stability in Uncertain Times In 2024, the Chicago market remains relatively stable despite the headwinds of rising interest rates and limited inventory. However, the approaching presidential election has introduced a level of uncertainty. Historically, real estate markets tend to cool in election years as buyers and sellers wait to see how policies may shift post-election. Concerns about potential changes to tax laws, housing regulations, or economic policies have created a sense of cautious optimism. Buyers and investors are closely watching the election outcome to gauge future economic conditions, but for now, Chicago remains a solid and competitive market for real estate. A Resilient Market While Chicago’s residential real estate market faces challenges like rising home prices and shrinking inventory, it remains resilient in 2024. As political and economic uncertainties continue to shape the landscape, both buyers and sellers will need to stay informed and adaptable. For anyone considering entering the market, it’s crucial to work with professionals who understand the nuances of these changing conditions.
